10 tips from property market analysts about what to expect in 2013
Here are 10 tips from property market analysts about what to expect in 2013:
1. Sydney to do better, but best NSW prospects still in the regions: Terry Ryder
Hotspotting.com.au’s Terry Ryder expects the Sydney market to do better in 2013 but still tips a number of NSW regional towns to outperform the capital city. Regional towns, he says, are more affordable and have provided much better capital growth over recent years. He expects the following regional market to continue to outperform Sydney in 2013: Dubbo, Tamworth, Gunnedah, Mudgee, Orange, Goulburn, Albury and Wagga Wagga. For more on capital city vs regional prospects in 2013 watch the full webinar with Terry Ryder.
2. Luxury market to recover first: Janusz Hooker
LJ Hooker deputy chairman Janusz Hooker says a recovery in the housing market is “inevitable”, with the luxury high-end market expected to be the first to enjoy price recovery having been hit the hardest by the downturn. His advice to property investors is to “look for places that went down the most and also watch the big cities – when they move it fans out to the regions usually within six to 12 months”.
3. Sydney sub-$750,000 market the strongest in Australia’s “BHP of real estate”: John McGrath
McGrath Estate Agents CEO John McGrath says recent weekend clearance rates indicate clearly that the under-$750,000 market is still strongest in Sydney, with McGrath averaging a 69% clearance rate in this bracket, followed by 65% for the $750,000 to $1.5 million sector. “Sydney remains the BHP of Australian real estate – the big blue-chip market that generally outperforms the rest, says McGrath, who predicts a 2% to 5% price rise in the under-$750,000 market and a 5 to 8% rise in the $750,000 to $1.5 million bracket.
4. Consider the outer suburbs of Adelaide and Brisbane: Margaret Lomas
Destiny Financial’s Margaret Lomas says property investors are starting to take a look at the outer suburbs of Adelaide and Brisbane, with activity picking up towards the end of 2012. These were areas were house prices started to move up a little bit in contrast to the rest of the market, which mostly stagnated, she told realestatetalk.com.au.
5. Rent vs buy equation to sway more first-home buyers and renters into the market: Tim Gurner
Tim Gurner, director at Melbourne-based property development company Urban Inc, says the buy versus rent equation will sway strongly towards buying in 2013, “so we’re expecting to see a lot of first home buyers and renters return to the market”. Urban Inc is currently developing Alessi in West Melbourne.
6. Perth and Sydney to perform, Brisbane held back by unemployment: Aaron Maskrey
Aaron Maskrey, research director at PRDnationwide, expects Sydney to experience steady, but modest growth of around 5% throughout the upcoming year. He says Perth should also be a stronger performer in 2013, with a combination of mining investment and low interest rates helping to shift this market off the bottom of its property cycle. “A conservative estimate of price growth during 2013 would see Perth increase in value by 2%, but such is the swing with this resource affected region, greater market sentiment could give rise to 6% growth.” Maskrey says Brisbane finds itself in a similar situation to Perth and would have been included with Perth’s forecasted growth but for the sharp rise in unemployment. “With a rising rate of jobless residents, any potential growth that was initially forecasted for Brisbane is now expected to be temporarily suppressed in early 2013,” he says.
7. A more generic uplift in property prices for Sydney then Melbourne: Matthew Chun
Becton CEO Matthew Chun is more bullish on the Sydney property market than Melbourne in 2013. Chun tells Property Observer he expects “meaningful price growth” in Sydney of 4% to 8% with modest growth of 2% to 4% in Melbourne. Chun also expects a more generic recovery across the Sydney market, while Melbourne will be restricted to growth from unique, well-located properties within 10 kilometres of the CBD. “Outside of this zone growth will be flat, and I also don’t expect much growth in the Melbourne apartment market,” he says. Becton’s two key projects are Divercity in Waterloo and Newleaf in Bonny Rigg in the west of Sydney.
8. West Melbourne land market has better prospects: Jeff Garvey, director of ID Land
Jeff Garvey, director of Melbourne residential developer ID Land, says the outer west growth corridor, which includes suburbs like Truganina and Plumpton, have good prospects, in contrast to the perception that the Melbourne land market is struggling. Garvey says the area is supported by “really big infrastructure projects” including the $5 billion regional rail link running from Southern Cross to Werribee and due for completion in 2016. In addition, Truganina is only 20 kilometres from the Melbourne CBD.
9. Don’t expect or wish for the cash rate to reach 2%: Joe Sirianni
Joe Sirianni, executive director at mortgage brokers Smartline, anticipates only one more rate cut in 2013 and says were the cash rate to fall to 2% it would undermine confidence, which he says is the key issue. “We’re living in changing times and the use of interest rate cuts as a lever to stimulate the economy just isn’t having the same impact as it has in the past. Therefore, I think the RBA will realise that there is little point in going much lower with the cash rate. A cash rate of 2% would be unprecedented in Australia, and I think there’s a danger that if rates were cut to this level, it would un-nerve most people and exasperate the already low levels of confidence,” says Sirianni.
10. A modest recovery in new housing in NSW in 2013 with better buying conditions: Craig D’Costa
Craig D’Costa, senior development manager of Sekisui House, a co-developer of the $2 billion Central Park project in Sydney, says a recovery in the housing industry will be a key factor in boosting the NSW economy. “The housing industry is forecasting NSW to achieve a modest increase in housing starts for 2013, this comes of the back of government led stimulus for new home buyers with substantial saving in stamp duty and grants. Overall, improved affordability and better buying conditions will underpin home buying activity next year in 2013, with upgraders and investors also likely be very active sectors,” he says.